The expectations of a re-build
I overheard some fans after Creighton’s loss to Iowa State talk of being on the bubble.
The fucking bubble.
Bubble talk, in the season after losing every single starting player on their roster. After losing one of the best point guards in program history. After losing one of the most iconic bombers to ever light up a scoreboard. After finally making it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.
Bubble talk.
This expectation seemed to be in lockstep with what I perceive makes sportfan culture toxic. Despite all evidence pointing to the necessity of patience with youth and inexperience, here were these bozos hoping that the Jays would somehow end up achieving the highest level of success in the college basketball world.
The post-Doug season is the only real scenario we can look at in terms of full roster depletion in the modern era, but that’s not really fair because that team was loaded with Missouri Valley-level players that weren’t recruited to compete in the throes of the Big East. That team could’ve beat the Bradleys and Evansvilles a few times and finished in the top three of a pretty good mid-major conference, but against the Villanovas and Marquettes? Notsomuch.
That’s what makes this season such a guessing game. The talent is clearly eons ahead of what that post-Doug team had, but the system Greg McDermott has installed is predicated upon communication, intellect, and experience. It’s a system that’s complex and takes failure to eventually run efficiently. That’s what made the last two seasons of Creighton basketball so elite: they went through those growing pains and made that system click.
When Ty-Shon Alexander and Mitch Ballock were freshmen, the Jays still featured Khyri Thomas and Marcus Foster. Holdover stars to help transition to a new era. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Alex O’Connell and Shereef Mitchell are the only three players with any BIG EAST conference experience. Part of that concoction makes it terrifying.
The other part, as we found out Friday night, makes it so damn exciting.
We’re able to watch this team grow in real-time. Not just individual players, but the entire fucking team.
The losses to Iowa State and Arizona State were frustrating, sure, but you could see why both of them happened: the defensive pressures offered on ballhandlers by both teams were stout. No oxygen. Suffocate these young players and force them to make mistakes. Pressure inexperience and reap the rewards.
Give these Jays room to breathe and they’ll bludgeon you one way or another. The identity of this team is still a complete grey area, where defense balances with offense, akin to those Villanova teams that wrought havoc in the late 2010s. Dribble-drives and post-play have slowly crept to keep pace with the three-point shot. It isn’t so much Let it Fly but more By Any Means.
We’re seeing young players get unbalanced minutes. Game by game approach. Where Rati Andronikashvili gets 6 minutes of gametime against Arizona State, he can get 20 minutes the very next game against Villanova. Where Trey Alexander gets 12 minutes of gametime against Iowa State, he can get 23 in the next game against BYU. Plug-and-play. See what happens.
We’re seeing the ascension of Ryan Kalkbrenner. All the question marks that sidled his game last season are being answered. Can he be physical against BIG EAST bigs? (note: according to Creighton’s roster, he went from 235 to 256lbs over the offseason) Can he play more than 20 minutes a game? (note: his highest single-game minutes total last season was 22 against UConn. He’s matched or exceeded that minutes total in all but two games this season - Arkansas Pine-Bluff and SIU-Edwardsville) He alters shots simply by being present. He’s also shooting 74% from inside the arc. He’s exceeded his freethrow makes from last year (22-45 in 2020-21, 26-41 this season). He ranks 21st in block rate according to KenPom.
That’s what I’d like to call development. That’s what good coaches do with good players - they make them great. A roster chock-full of Good Players? Well…
After a 12 game sample size, where can expectations fall? In casual conversation with folks who don’t follow the program as I do, I tell them they’re going to be final four good next year because I live a hyperbolic life, but also to give credence to failure this season. I’m also trying to sell these folks on the idea of getting in on the ground floor. Hop on the bandwagon now, idiot, because holy fucking shit these guys are gonna be good. You can see those flashes of brilliance as bright as you see the inexperience. It’s hard not to be enamored by it. Against Villanova the entire team gelled, becoming this ferocious beast that had that will to win. You saw it for 40 minutes. It’s intoxicating when this team shows it.
I don’t mind what the result is at the end of the year. NCAA tournament? Gravy. NIT? Rad as hell. The sun exploding, eviscerating us all? Perfect.
McDermott said it best after the win against Villanova:
“Would I have guessed that we could beat a couple of ranked teams in a week’s time? Probably not. Let’s be honest: we’re learning. We’re growing... there’s going to be some inconsistencies, there’s going to be peaks and valleys. We had a great peak on Saturday against BYU, we had a valley against Arizona State, and we climbed out of it. The next step for this team is: can we be an everyday, count-on-me, regardless of how many minutes I play, regardless of what I’m asked to do, can we ring the bell and do it? That’s part of the process that a young player has to go through.”
Just enjoy the ride.
